“Our evaluation signifies that roughly 19% of jobs have a minimum of 50% of their duties uncovered to GPTs when contemplating each present mannequin capabilities and anticipated GPT-powered software program.”
That’s the conclusion from OpenAI’s current paper “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models.”
How a lot may US GDP develop assuming large-language fashions allow US staff to do extra?
The BEA estimates US GDP is $26.2t. If we assume the OpenAI examine implies staff spend 50% much less time on the duties impacted by large-language fashions, the US ought to profit from a 4% GDP enchancment which is about $1.05t.
Taxed on the US company revenue tax charge of 21%, LLMs would produce about $220b in Federal authorities revenue or about 15% of the projected 2023 deficit of $1.4t.
The Congressional Budget Office projects the US economy will to grow 3.1% this yr so if this examine is directionally right, LLMs’ contribution would greater than double the GDP development charge.
This surge may parallel the personal computer’s doubling of the US labor productivity rate from 2005-2015 when computer systems penetrated most enterprise operations which correlates to Moore’s Regulation in keeping with a analysis report by the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York.
None of those calculations consider adjustments in staffing or private revenue tax assortment on positive factors in productiveness or new jobs/industries that may develop or shrink.
Second-order results like these are difficult to precisely predict – like monarchs & monsoons. However given the tempo of Microsoft, Salesforce, & Adobe launching LLM-enabled merchandise, the velocity with which these productiveness positive factors accrue to GDP could also be speedy.
Throughout the paper, the authors reveal the professions wherein 100% of the work can be impacted by LLMs : mathematicians, tax preparation, monetary analysts, writers, & net designers. Insurance coverage appraisers, monetary managers, & search advertising strategists will see lower than 15% of their work impacted by AI.
What do you suppose? Will large-language fashions produce larger productiveness positive factors than the non-public pc?